Ahead of the African Climate Action Summit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a report on the impact of climate change on fragile and conflict-affected countries.
According to the findings in the report, climate change indeed inflicts more lasting macroeconomic costs on fragile countries. Cumulative losses in gross domestic product reach about four per cent in fragile states, three years after extreme weather events. This compares with around 1 per cent in other countries. Droughts in fragile states are expected to reduce per-capita GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points every year.
The report highlights the increase in natural disasters in various African nations, from the Central African Republic to Somalia and Sudan. These natural disasters are having a devastating impact on the lives and livelihoods of the regions’ inhabitants. The report also discusses the mass displacement caused by these disasters.
Fragile states suffer more from floods, droughts, storms, and other climate-related shocks than other countries, even though they have contributed the least to climate change. Every year, three times more people are affected by natural disasters in fragile states than in other countries. Disasters in fragile states displace more than twice the share of the population compared to other countries.
According to the IMF report, temperatures in fragile states are already higher than in other countries due to their geographical locations. By 2040, fragile states could experience an average of 61 days per year with temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius—four times more than other countries.
The IMF report suggests that deaths from conflicts as a percentage of the population could increase by close to 10% in fragile countries and also push almost 50 million people in these vulnerable states into hunger by 2060.